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Correlation does not Imply Causation
Humor about how correlation does not imply causation by scientists. Rebuttal to religious conservative views of God and LGBTQ+ persons with empirical evidence. What if polls decided science?
A mantra of science is, "correlation does not imply causation." And scientist get bored, so we have thought-provocative examples silly examples and jokes.
The iconic example is skirt hemlines rising causes the stock market to rise.
What happens if we use actual empirical evidence to example religious conservative understanding of God's view of LGBTQ+ persons?
What if polls decided science?
The iconic example is skirt hemlines rising causes the stock market to rise.
What happens if we use actual empirical evidence to example religious conservative understanding of God's view of LGBTQ+ persons?
What if polls decided science?
Marilyn Monroe, Seven Year Itch, promotional photo
“
I want a girl with a mind like a diamond. I want a girl who knows what's best. I want a girl with shoes that cut, and eyes that burn like cigarettes. I want a girl with the right allocations, who's fast and thorough and sharp as a tack. She's playing with her jewelry, she's putting up her hair. She's touring the facility and picking up slack. I want a girl with a short skirt and a l...o...n...g jacket.
Are Conservative Christians correct about God's View of LGBTQ+ Persons? An Empirical Investigation.
Do Unnatural Acts Cause Natural Disasters?
Pat Robertson, founder of the Christian Coalition, recently warned Orlando, Florida, that it was courting natural disaster by allowing gay pride flags to be flown along its streets. "A condition like this will bring about ... earthquakes, tornadoes, and possibly a meteor," he said, apparently referring to his belief that the presence of openly gay people incurs divine wrath and that God acts through geological and meteorological events to destroy municipalities that permit gay people the same civil liberties as others. (Robertson also warned Orlando about terrorist bombs, suggesting the possibility that God may also employ terrorists.)
Before Pat and his Conservative Christian cronies get too carried away promulgating the idea that natural disasters are prompted by people who displease God, they should take a hard look at the data.
Take tornadoes. Every state (except Alaska) has them -- some only one or two a year, dozens in others. Gay people are in every state (even Alaska). According to Pat's hypothesis, there should be more gay people in states that have more tornadoes. But are there? Nope. In fact, there's no correlation at all between the number of gay folks (as estimated by the number of gay political organizations, support groups, bookstores, radio programs, and circuit parties) and the annual tornado count (r = .04, p = .78 for you statisticians). So much for the "God hates gays" theory.
God seems almost neutral on the subject of sexual orientation. I say "almost" because if we look at the density of gay groups relative to the population as a whole, there is a small but statistically significant (p < .05) correlation with the occurrence of tornadoes. And it's a negative correlation (r = -.28). For those of you who haven't used statistics since 1973, that means that a high concentration of gay organizations actually protects against tornadoes. A state with the population of, say, Alabama could avert two tornadoes a year merely by doubling the number of gay organizations in the state. (Tough choice for Alabama's civil defense strategists.)
Although God may not care about sexual orientation, the same cannot be said for religious affiliation. If the underlying tenet of Pat's postulate is true -- that God wipes out offensive folks via natural disasters -- then perhaps we can find some evidence of who's on God's hit list. Jews are off the hook here: there's no correlation between numbers of Jews and frequency of tornadoes. Ditto for Catholics. But when it comes to Protestants, there's a highly significant correlation of .71. This means that fully half the state-to-state variation in tornado frequency can be accounted for by the presence of Protestants. And the chance that this association is merely coincidental is only one in 10,000.
Protestants, of course, come in many flavors -- we were able to find statistics for Lutherans, Methodists, Baptists, and Other. Lutherans who don't seem to be a problem -- no correlation with tornadoes. There's a modest correlation (r = .52, p = .0001) between Methodists and tornadoes. But Baptists and Others share the prize: both groups show a definite correlation with tornado frequency (r = .68, p = .0001). This means that Texas could cut its average of 139 tornadoes per year in half by sending a few hundred thousand Baptists elsewhere (Alaska maybe?).
What, you are probably asking yourself, what about gay Protestants? An examination of the numbers of gay religious groups (mostly Protestant) reveals no significant relationship with tornadoes. Perhaps even Protestants are less repugnant to God if they're gay. And that brings up another point - the futility of trying to save the world by getting gay people to accept Jesus. It looks from our numbers like the frequency of natural disasters could be more effectively reduced by encouraging Protestants to be gay.
Gay people have been falsely blamed for disasters ever since Sodom was destroyed by fire and brimstone (we have been unable to find any statistics on disasters involving brimstone). According to a reliable source, the destruction of Sodom was indeed an act of God (see Genesis 19:13) and was perpetrated because the citizens thereof were, according to the same source (see Ezekiel 16:49-50), "arrogant, overfed and unconcerned [and] did not help the poor and needy" - not because they were gay. Now Pat would have us believe that gays are the cause of tornadoes (as well as earthquakes, meteors, and even terrorist bombs) in utter disregard for evidence showing that Baptists are much more likely to cause them.
I say "Kudos!" to Orlando. Despite Robertson's warning that Orlando is "right in the way of some serious hurricanes" (hardly a revelation), note that it was not struck by the very destructive Hurricane Andrew a few years ago. And amid the recent conflagrations (that's fires) in central Florida, which occurred just after Pat sounded his alarm, Orlando was spared. Keep those flags waving!
As any statistician will tell you, of course, correlation doesn't prove causation. Protestants causing tornadoes by angering God isn't the only explanation for these data. It could be that Baptists and Other Protestants purposely flock to states that have lots of tornadoes (no, we haven't checked for a correlation between IQ and religious affiliation). But if Pat and his Conservative Christian crew insist that natural disasters are brought on by people who offend God, let the data show who those people are.
Janis Walworth
July 16, 1998
Sources: Tornado Occurrence by State, 1962-1991; 1990 Churches and Church Membership; Population by State, 1990 US Census; Gay & Lesbian Political Organizations, Support Groups, and Religious Groups from Gayellow Pages, National Edition, 1987.
Pat Robertson, founder of the Christian Coalition, recently warned Orlando, Florida, that it was courting natural disaster by allowing gay pride flags to be flown along its streets. "A condition like this will bring about ... earthquakes, tornadoes, and possibly a meteor," he said, apparently referring to his belief that the presence of openly gay people incurs divine wrath and that God acts through geological and meteorological events to destroy municipalities that permit gay people the same civil liberties as others. (Robertson also warned Orlando about terrorist bombs, suggesting the possibility that God may also employ terrorists.)
Before Pat and his Conservative Christian cronies get too carried away promulgating the idea that natural disasters are prompted by people who displease God, they should take a hard look at the data.
Take tornadoes. Every state (except Alaska) has them -- some only one or two a year, dozens in others. Gay people are in every state (even Alaska). According to Pat's hypothesis, there should be more gay people in states that have more tornadoes. But are there? Nope. In fact, there's no correlation at all between the number of gay folks (as estimated by the number of gay political organizations, support groups, bookstores, radio programs, and circuit parties) and the annual tornado count (r = .04, p = .78 for you statisticians). So much for the "God hates gays" theory.
God seems almost neutral on the subject of sexual orientation. I say "almost" because if we look at the density of gay groups relative to the population as a whole, there is a small but statistically significant (p < .05) correlation with the occurrence of tornadoes. And it's a negative correlation (r = -.28). For those of you who haven't used statistics since 1973, that means that a high concentration of gay organizations actually protects against tornadoes. A state with the population of, say, Alabama could avert two tornadoes a year merely by doubling the number of gay organizations in the state. (Tough choice for Alabama's civil defense strategists.)
Although God may not care about sexual orientation, the same cannot be said for religious affiliation. If the underlying tenet of Pat's postulate is true -- that God wipes out offensive folks via natural disasters -- then perhaps we can find some evidence of who's on God's hit list. Jews are off the hook here: there's no correlation between numbers of Jews and frequency of tornadoes. Ditto for Catholics. But when it comes to Protestants, there's a highly significant correlation of .71. This means that fully half the state-to-state variation in tornado frequency can be accounted for by the presence of Protestants. And the chance that this association is merely coincidental is only one in 10,000.
Protestants, of course, come in many flavors -- we were able to find statistics for Lutherans, Methodists, Baptists, and Other. Lutherans who don't seem to be a problem -- no correlation with tornadoes. There's a modest correlation (r = .52, p = .0001) between Methodists and tornadoes. But Baptists and Others share the prize: both groups show a definite correlation with tornado frequency (r = .68, p = .0001). This means that Texas could cut its average of 139 tornadoes per year in half by sending a few hundred thousand Baptists elsewhere (Alaska maybe?).
What, you are probably asking yourself, what about gay Protestants? An examination of the numbers of gay religious groups (mostly Protestant) reveals no significant relationship with tornadoes. Perhaps even Protestants are less repugnant to God if they're gay. And that brings up another point - the futility of trying to save the world by getting gay people to accept Jesus. It looks from our numbers like the frequency of natural disasters could be more effectively reduced by encouraging Protestants to be gay.
Gay people have been falsely blamed for disasters ever since Sodom was destroyed by fire and brimstone (we have been unable to find any statistics on disasters involving brimstone). According to a reliable source, the destruction of Sodom was indeed an act of God (see Genesis 19:13) and was perpetrated because the citizens thereof were, according to the same source (see Ezekiel 16:49-50), "arrogant, overfed and unconcerned [and] did not help the poor and needy" - not because they were gay. Now Pat would have us believe that gays are the cause of tornadoes (as well as earthquakes, meteors, and even terrorist bombs) in utter disregard for evidence showing that Baptists are much more likely to cause them.
I say "Kudos!" to Orlando. Despite Robertson's warning that Orlando is "right in the way of some serious hurricanes" (hardly a revelation), note that it was not struck by the very destructive Hurricane Andrew a few years ago. And amid the recent conflagrations (that's fires) in central Florida, which occurred just after Pat sounded his alarm, Orlando was spared. Keep those flags waving!
As any statistician will tell you, of course, correlation doesn't prove causation. Protestants causing tornadoes by angering God isn't the only explanation for these data. It could be that Baptists and Other Protestants purposely flock to states that have lots of tornadoes (no, we haven't checked for a correlation between IQ and religious affiliation). But if Pat and his Conservative Christian crew insist that natural disasters are brought on by people who offend God, let the data show who those people are.
Janis Walworth
July 16, 1998
Sources: Tornado Occurrence by State, 1962-1991; 1990 Churches and Church Membership; Population by State, 1990 US Census; Gay & Lesbian Political Organizations, Support Groups, and Religious Groups from Gayellow Pages, National Edition, 1987.
New Poll Shows Correlation is Causation
WASHINGTON (AP) The results of a new survey conducted by pollsters suggest that, contrary to common scientific wisdom, correlation does in fact imply causation. The highly reputable source, Gallup Polls, Inc., surveyed 1009 Americans during the month of October and asked them, "Do you believe correlation implies causation?" An overwhelming 64% of American's answered "YES", while only 38% replied "NO". Another 8% were undecided. This result threatens to shake the foundations of both the scientific and mainstream community.
"It is really a mandate from the people." commented one pundit who wished to remain anonymous. "It says that The American People are sick and tired of the scientific mumbo-jumbo that they keep trying to shove down our throats, and want some clear rules about what to believe. Now that correlation implies causation, not only is everything easier to understand, it also shows that even Science must answer to the will of John and Jane Q. Public."
Others are excited because this new, important result actually gives insight into why the result occurred in the first place. "If you look at the numbers over the past two decades, you can see that Americans have been placing less and less faith in the old maxim 'Correlation is not Causation' as time progresses." explained pollster and pop media icon Sarah Purcell. "Now, with the results of the latest poll, we are able to determine that people's lack of belief in correlation not being causal has caused correlation to now become causal. It is a real advance in the field of meta-epistemology."
This major philosophical advance is, surprisingly, looked on with skepticism amongst the theological community. Rabbi Marvin Pachino feels that the new finding will not affect the plight of theists around the world. "You see, those who hold a deep religious belief have a thing called faith, and with faith all things are possible. We still fervently believe, albeit contrary to strong evidence, that correlation does not imply causation. Our steadfast and determined faith has guided us through thousands of years of trials and tribulations, and so we will weather this storm and survive, as we have survived before."
Joining the theologists in their skepticism are the philosophers. "It's really the chicken and the egg problem. Back when we had to worry about causation, we could debate which came first. Now that correlation IS causation, I'm pretty much out of work." philosopher-king Jesse "The Mind" Ventura told reporters. "I've spent the last fifteen years in a heated philosophical debate about epistemics, and then all of the sudden Gallup comes along and says, "Average household consumption of peanut butter is up, people prefer red to blue, and ... by the way, CORRELATION IS CAUSATION. Do you know what this means? This means that good looks actually make you smarter! This means that Katie Couric makes the sun come up in the morning! This means that Bill Gates was right and the Y2K bug is Gregory's fault." Ventura was referring to Pope Gregory XIII, the 16th century pontiff who introduced the "Gregorian Calendar" we use today, and who we now know is to blame for the year 2000.
The scientific community is deeply divided on this matter. "It sure makes my job a lot easier." confided neuroscientist Thad Polk. "Those who criticize my work always point out that, although highly correlated, cerebral blood flow is not 'thought'. Now that we know correlation IS causal, I can solve that pesky mind-body problem and conclude that thinking is merely the dynamic movement of blood within cerebral tissue. This is going to make getting tenure a piece of cake!"
Anti-correlationist Travis Seymour is more cynical. "What about all the previous correlational results? Do they get grandfathered in? Like, the old stock market/hemline Pearson's rho is about 0.85. Does this mean dress lengths actually dictated the stock market, even though they did it at a time when correlation did not imply causation? And what about negative and marginally significant correlations? These questions must be answered before the scientific community will accept the results of the poll wholeheartedly. More research is definitely needed."
Whether one welcomes the news or sheds a tear at the loss of the ages-old maxim that hoped to eternally separate the highly correlated from the causal, one must admit that the new logic is here and it's here to stay. Here to stay, of course, until next October, when Gallup, Inc. plans on administering the poll again. But chances are, once Americans begin seeing the entrepreneurial and market opportunities associated with this major philosophical advance, there will be no returning to the darker age when causal relationships were much more difficult to detect.
attributed to Dan Horn, Shane Mueller, Jennifer Glass, Paul Hamilton, & Heather Pond, University of Michigan, Happy Hour
"It is really a mandate from the people." commented one pundit who wished to remain anonymous. "It says that The American People are sick and tired of the scientific mumbo-jumbo that they keep trying to shove down our throats, and want some clear rules about what to believe. Now that correlation implies causation, not only is everything easier to understand, it also shows that even Science must answer to the will of John and Jane Q. Public."
Others are excited because this new, important result actually gives insight into why the result occurred in the first place. "If you look at the numbers over the past two decades, you can see that Americans have been placing less and less faith in the old maxim 'Correlation is not Causation' as time progresses." explained pollster and pop media icon Sarah Purcell. "Now, with the results of the latest poll, we are able to determine that people's lack of belief in correlation not being causal has caused correlation to now become causal. It is a real advance in the field of meta-epistemology."
This major philosophical advance is, surprisingly, looked on with skepticism amongst the theological community. Rabbi Marvin Pachino feels that the new finding will not affect the plight of theists around the world. "You see, those who hold a deep religious belief have a thing called faith, and with faith all things are possible. We still fervently believe, albeit contrary to strong evidence, that correlation does not imply causation. Our steadfast and determined faith has guided us through thousands of years of trials and tribulations, and so we will weather this storm and survive, as we have survived before."
Joining the theologists in their skepticism are the philosophers. "It's really the chicken and the egg problem. Back when we had to worry about causation, we could debate which came first. Now that correlation IS causation, I'm pretty much out of work." philosopher-king Jesse "The Mind" Ventura told reporters. "I've spent the last fifteen years in a heated philosophical debate about epistemics, and then all of the sudden Gallup comes along and says, "Average household consumption of peanut butter is up, people prefer red to blue, and ... by the way, CORRELATION IS CAUSATION. Do you know what this means? This means that good looks actually make you smarter! This means that Katie Couric makes the sun come up in the morning! This means that Bill Gates was right and the Y2K bug is Gregory's fault." Ventura was referring to Pope Gregory XIII, the 16th century pontiff who introduced the "Gregorian Calendar" we use today, and who we now know is to blame for the year 2000.
The scientific community is deeply divided on this matter. "It sure makes my job a lot easier." confided neuroscientist Thad Polk. "Those who criticize my work always point out that, although highly correlated, cerebral blood flow is not 'thought'. Now that we know correlation IS causal, I can solve that pesky mind-body problem and conclude that thinking is merely the dynamic movement of blood within cerebral tissue. This is going to make getting tenure a piece of cake!"
Anti-correlationist Travis Seymour is more cynical. "What about all the previous correlational results? Do they get grandfathered in? Like, the old stock market/hemline Pearson's rho is about 0.85. Does this mean dress lengths actually dictated the stock market, even though they did it at a time when correlation did not imply causation? And what about negative and marginally significant correlations? These questions must be answered before the scientific community will accept the results of the poll wholeheartedly. More research is definitely needed."
Whether one welcomes the news or sheds a tear at the loss of the ages-old maxim that hoped to eternally separate the highly correlated from the causal, one must admit that the new logic is here and it's here to stay. Here to stay, of course, until next October, when Gallup, Inc. plans on administering the poll again. But chances are, once Americans begin seeing the entrepreneurial and market opportunities associated with this major philosophical advance, there will be no returning to the darker age when causal relationships were much more difficult to detect.
attributed to Dan Horn, Shane Mueller, Jennifer Glass, Paul Hamilton, & Heather Pond, University of Michigan, Happy Hour